I'm liking the blue polygon, except in those concave places.
So, if there is a report of a brief tornado in your polygon, you get 100 more points than you would if there was a funnel cloud that just barely missed touching down, or a tornado that no one saw or reported?
I'm not sure about the distance yet. I know what you mean about 200 miles... I think 100 is good, but more test cases would be good.
A good place to look is the Short Range Ensemble Forecast Models. Not only is it designed for the short term, but it is comprised of ensembles, so it can show you the range of the same model ran multiple times with slightly different initial conditions. Best place to view it is at
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/ (on the Storm Prediction Center website). Helicity is included there, but the Total Totals and K index are not. I'm not really sure a good location for those, I don't look at those, honestly. For tornadoes, I do like the Significant Tornado Parameter, which is found on the SREF. It's a combination index using helicity, CAPE, CIN, LCL height, and 0-6km wind shear (
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoan ... _stor.html).
I honestly don't remember May 3... it seems I didn't place an outlook for that day, but I can't tell you why because I don't remember what it looked like.